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The long-term game of the Apple Watch

We technology enthusiasts have a great ability to say why things won’t work but a very bad ability to say why they will work . This is a bug that none of us can get rid of. Dozens of articles have been written and there has been unsuspected debate about why the Apple Watch will be a failure, but we have rarely stopped to think about why it might succeed.

There are a lot of doubts in the air that Apple will have to clear up before it can be marketed. Despite this, there are already surveys in which 10% and 18% of iPhone users would be interested in the Apple Watch. It’s a bit rash to ask the public about a product that is not available, but serves to measure the level of trust and interest generated in the early adopters of the company.

The long-term game of the Apple Watch
The long-term game of the Apple Watch

It is also risky to make projections about the number of units to be sold in the first year. Analysts like Morgan Stanley estimate up to 30 million Watches sold in 2015. The reality is that we won’t know how well Apple’s new device will sell until after a few quarters, as the company plans to “hide” its sold units in the “Other products” section.

From the user’s point of view, these calculations are interesting but they add little. So how do we know if the Apple Watch will be a success or not?

The pieces are there, you just have to assemble the puzzle

It’s a slightly long but very revealing fragment about how Apple works, extracted from the interview made by Charlie Rose to Cook (you can see the highlights here and here). To try to find out if Watch will be a success, we must focus on the things Apple has been doing around it:

White and in a bottle. iBeacons, interior maps, store location detection, iPhone, and Apple Watch. Contracting and procurement . During the Apple Watch presentation, an Apple executive demoed Maps on the Clock. I must admit that it is one of the features that have caught my attention the most since then. But what if this was just the beginning?

With all this effort, Apple would be creating a way to be able to move around inside an establishment , museum, mall, supermarket and public offices without the need for us to know its distribution in advance. Isn’t this the kind of technology that Cupertino’s people love to be able to say that disappears from our sight and surprises at the same time?

Even more pieces to be collected

The Watch plays with Apple’s strengths on its side

There are a lot of things that Apple has been doing over the last few years that are related to the Apple Watch. Not in vain they said in their presentation that they have been working on this device for 3 years . We have HomeKit (which, despite the delay has Apple “excited”) and a good amount of accessories already adapted to this platform presented during the last CES.

El papel del Apple Watch en la era post-smartphone.

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Apple Pay is also adapted for the Apple watch; HealthKit and the Health app in iOS 8, the Fitness and Workout apps designed to control our physical activity, agreements with hospitals, health and sleep contracting; the small computer encapsulated in the S1 chip; the Apple Stores like embassies for sale and more contracting; the thousand faces of the Watch and the fashion component it has; its presentation and the building they fitted out for the occasion.

And many other threads that have gone unnoticed or that we haven’t seen because Apple has pulled them with absolute secrecy. It may not be the same one the company bet on when it released the first iPhone, but I think it’s undeniable that they have dedicated a lot of effort, resources, ideas and time to make the best Apple Watch they were capable of.

An expansion that will take years

The success of the Apple Watch will not be immediate . It will take several years to reach enough potential to attract the attention of millions of people. The value it contains will grow at the same rate as the different initiatives that accompany it expand.

Neither the iPod nor the iPhone was a resounding success . At first, there were hardly any units sold compared to their current levels (or 2009 in the case of the iPod). Their growth was slow and raised doubts along the way. But as time went by, they added an inescapable value for millions of people.

The Apple Watch game will follow the same path. Generation after generation, iteration after iteration will eventually be so embedded in our daily lives that we will realize that the value it brings is far greater than its greatest asset: the battery.

On this point, it’s worth remembering that the original iPhone had only 5 hours of battery life for talking, watching video, or browsing. Much less than the smartphones of that time. And in the end, we were all willing to give up and recharge our smartphone every night in exchange for all the things it brings us daily.

Will there come a day when we can’t leave home without the Watch, just like today with our iPhone? Since Apple they seem to have very few doubts .

At Apple